WHAT A NIGHT
Even though I finished up my live blogging at about 1 am, I still stayed up til about two or so hoping for a definitive answer out of Montana. So needless to say, I exhausted after over six hours of live blogging. That was my first time doing it and I enjoyed it overall, but that probably had more to do with the results than the actual act. Still, for those of you who came by and checked me out, thanks.
So, where are we at today? Back in control of at least one house of Congress, that's where! Now I'm just looking forward to heading out to my car and tuning into some rightie talk just to listen to go all Jonestown on their listeners. As I noted throughout the live blogging, this night was historic. The Democrats did not give up a single seat to the Republicans in the House or the Senate. As it stands right now, according to the DCCC, we have picked up 28 an amazing 28 seats and more could be coming. Truly historic. I know that the GOP looks back fondly on 1994 with their Republican Revolution, and now the Dems can point to 2006 as the year when sanity and accountability returned to Washington.
As for the Senate, I'm sure you're all aware that two races, Montana and Virginia, are too close to call at this point and will probably go the recount way. I'm comfortable with that as both Dems, Webb and Tester, are currently holding leads and it's always better to have a lead going into a recount then be the guy trailing. Just ask Al Gore.
Some quick individual House thoughts - As I noted before, it looks like Mean Jean Schmidt will still be in the House to kick around, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. ... Joe Sestak smacked down Curt Weldon in Pennsylvania 07. You'll recall Weldon, among his numerous other offenses, actually attacked Sestak for bringing his very ill daughter to an out-of-state facility for treatment. Classy dude. ... Double Amputee and Iraq War veteran could not break through her very Republican district in Illinois 06, but she lost by a small margin so we may see her again in two years. ... Another person to kick around is the virulently anti-gay Marilyn Musgrave, who survived her challenge against Angie Paccione in Colorado 04. Musgrave in the one who thinks that gay marriage is THE most important issue facing America today. While this wingnut didn't go down in defeat, at least her power is vastly diminished in a Democratically control House. ... The fight in Wyoming against the cripple and the woman who wanted to smack that cripple hasn't been called yet as Barbara Cubin (the slapper) leads Gary Trauner by a miniscule 822 votes. Granted, this is Wyoming where less than 200,000 votes total were cast, but it still quite close as 1% of precincts have failed to report. ... You want proof that every single vote counts, head up to Connecticut 02 where Democrat Joe Courtney leads incumbent Republican Rob Simmons by a razor thin 173 votes out of 242,000 total votes cast. 100% of precincts have reported, and this is obviously in recountville, but much like the results in Virginia and Montana, it's better to enter a recount in the lead, even a small one.
Up next, Bush is giving a press conference around lunchtime today. The smart move would be to be very concilliatory and such and I'm certain that's how he'll start off, but once the questions start flying you just know the impetuous man/child is going to rear his ugly head. He'll be impatient and jerky and overly demonstrative like a child who just had a toy taken away. It should be a sight to see.
Anyway, I'm off to work (my job I actually get paid for). A good car ride will give me some time to digest the enormity of what went down last night. It feels good to be a Dem today. See you all in a few hours.
Oh, one more thing, thanks to Kat and her odd sleeping patterns as she was able to continue posting long after I went to bed. Based on some numbers I've seen, we had numerous visitors throughout the night (which is unusual given the size of my readership) so I'm glad they had some new stuff to read, including the nice Santorum smackdown below. Thanks, Kat.
Showing posts with label 2006 Election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2006 Election. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
ELECTION NIGHT BLOGGING
UPDATE (1:05 am): McCaskill's on over at CNN and it sure sounds to me like a victory speech, though there's still 12% of the vote out there. Her lead has increased throughout the last hour and she's now up to almost a 40,000 vote lead. Conversely, Talent was just on and he and his crowd were much more subdued. He's got the look in his eyes that the Dems have had the last few years. Looks good on him.
Montana has reported 64% and Tester is leading by just under 10,000.
I think I'm headed to bed. It'll be nice to put my head on a pillow with dreams of a functioning government and oversight and accountability dancing in my head. I can only imagine what the right wingers are dealing with as they lay down, as most of them have. Actually, I don't have to imagine; I've dealt with what they are feeling now the last few elections. I'd feel bad for them, except I don't.
I hope to wake up with a Dem majority in the Senate to go along with the House. If it happens, who becomes Majority Leader? I don't see Reid staying on, but I could be wrong.
Ugh, must get sleep. Good night, and thanks to my readers for hanging with me.
UPDATE (12:45 am): Over on MSNBC, Jack Murtha has staked his claim to the Majority Leader position in the House. He talked really tough on Bush and Iraq. He should be effective and he claims to have almost enough support for the post. I recall some right wingers were giddy in anticipation of the "traitor" getting beat in his election. He won by 20 points.
McCaskill has opened it up a bit more over in Missouri. She's now up by over 18,500 with 84% reporting.
Montana continues to tighten somewhat as Tester still leads Burns, now by 10,700 votes with 59% reporting.
White House spokesman Tony Snow said the outcome of the elections, was "not what we would've hoped." Gosh, ya think? And here I thought Rove had the math on this election.
UPDATE (12:25 am): Schadenfreude moment - as I mentioned Malkin's efforts to buck up the troops with an outdated Talent lead, she's since updated, "Well, that was short-lived." Oh, it feels good to be a Dem tonight!
Latest House numbers have the Dems picking up 23 seats. They have not lost a single seat. Let me repeat that - THEY HAVE NOT LOST A SINGLE SEAT. That is historic.
We're up to 81% reporting in Missouri and McCaskill is up by about 13,200 on Talent.
No movement in Virginia as we're still at 99%.
Montana has tightened a bit (as polls suggested throughout the campaign). Tester still leads 52-45 with 52% reporting.
UPDATE (12:10 am): McCaskill got her lead back, and then some. 80% reporting that she now leads Talent by about 14,000 points. That's a good number this late. You can just taste the Senate....
Michelle Malkin is sad over at her site. She just reported that Talent is leading as of 15 minutes ago and then writes, "Trying to give you some good news here...." Just wait til she reports the new numbers; her readers will be suicidal.
Webb was on over at CNN and he's feeling good about where he's at, going so far as to claim that it's good to win. He's in a good position, that's for sure. But lawyers make everything nasty so I hope the Dems have wheels on the ground ready to fight to the end on this. Let's not see a repeat of Florida 2000.
UPDATE (11:55 pm): The panel on MSNBC brought up an interesting point that I hadn't thought about what with everything else going on. If the Dems gain control of the Senate, Bush will not be able to push through another conservative judge to the Supreme Court in the event of a vacancy. That's a huge deal.
Also, the numbers I had on McCaskill seem to have been some sort of glitch/error over on CNN's page. Instead, they're only showing 71% reporting and Talent is in the lead with 48,000 votes. Wish I knew where those numbers came from.
Cubin retook the lead in Wyoming 01 with 95% reporting. She holds about an 800 vote lead.
Musgrave continues to lead in Colorado over Paccione by about 6400 votes (47% reporting).
Double amputee Tammy Duckworth lost her bid for Congress in Illinois 06. Too bad.
UPDATE (11:45 pm): McCaskill has taken the lead in Missouri. She leads by about 1200 votes with 74% reporting.
Tester continues to lead Burns by 10 percentage points (31% reporting).
The count remains at 99% in the Webb/Allen race. As I noted earlier, apparently many votes still need to be counted in Fairfax County, which I heard skews heavily for Webb.
I cannot believe that we could be looking at a Democratic controlled Senate, but we're at the threshold.
UPDATE (11:40 pm): Looks like we've still got Mean Jean Schmidt to kick around in Ohio 02. Try as hard as we can to get the shrew out, it isn't happening. At least she's out of the majority.
Bob Corker is being called the "apparent winner" in Tennessee as all the votes cast today have supposedly been counted. Not one I expected the Dems to pick up, but it would have been nice. Given this, we need a sweep of the remaining Senate seats to gain a majority. Things look promising in Virginia and Montana; Missouri's got a little ways to go (McCaskill trails by 48,000 with 69% reporting, a small improvement).
George Allen is going to bed. He appeared in front of his supporters and he basically told them, "See you tomorrow." If I were in that close of a race, I wouldn't be leaving. On MSNBC, it's been reported that 33,000 uncounted votes still to come from Fairfax County, which would be a big gain for Webb given the locality.
UPDATE (11:20 pm): Tester has a solid lead (55%-43%) over Burns in Montana, but that's with only 24% reporting so it's still pretty early out there in Big Sky.
McCaskill still trails Talent with 62% reporting. She's back 52,500 votes but she's staying close. I don't have location breakdown of where the votes are coming from, but it seems (at least according to tonight) that urban areas are taking longer to report than rural areas. This may not be the case in Missouri, but if it is, that's a good sign for McCaskill.
I'm keeping an eye on some congressional races, like Colorado 04 where anti-gay incumbent Marilyn Musgrave holds a slim lead over Angie Paccione (under 2000 votes w/28% reporting) but it's been back and forth for most of the night.
Also I'm keeping tabs on Wyoming 01 (yes, WY-01; I'm just that sad) as Gary Trauner (D) currently leads Barbara Cubin (R) by about 3500 votes with 87% reporting. Some info - Trauner is handicapped and gets around in a wheelchair. After a debate Cubin threatened to slap Trauner and would have done so if he wasn't in that chair. Nice woman. Glad she's going down.
UPDATE (10:55 pm): Ben Cardin continues to open the gap on Steele, much to the chagrin of Mehlman and company. Michelle Malkin has been whining about this all night as she felt it was projected too early for Cardin. I'll let you know if she mea culpas when they final numbers are in.
Also, over in Virginia, 99% of precincts have reported and Webb has taken the lead! He's currently 2376 votes ahead. While I'm not absolutely certain, it seems that Webb gains about 3-5-6000 votes for every percentage points. This one is tough to watch. Every vote counts, people.
According to the DCCC's numbers, we're three numbers clear of a majority. Everything after that 15 was gravy but I'll take all that we can get.
UPDATE (10:35 pm): Webb continues to creep up as he is now less than 7000 votes from Allen. Out over two million votes cast, this one is amazing.
The people have spoken in South Dakota, and they have collectively crapped on the anti-choice wingers in the state. Some quick background - the state legislature passed a draconion anti-abortion law that was intended to take on Roe v. Wade in the not too distant future. The voters of the state got the measure on the ballot in order to head this off and they have resoundingly said no way. Well done.
Ken Mehlman, god bless the little weasel, continues to spin on CNN. The Dems have won the House, yet he still won't concede. He claims that there are still folks voting (really?) and they shouldn't be swayed by early pronouncements. Oh, and he's still pimping Steele, though he was projected to lose over an hour ago. Though Steele "led" for much of the early returns, Cardin has taken a 20,000 vote lead with 56% reporting.
UPDATE (10:25 pm): Jim Webb has closed the gap a ton in the closing moments of the Senate race in Virginia as he's now within 11,000 votes of Allen with 97% reporting. This thing appears headed for a recount and control of the Senate might not be known for a couple of weeks.
Tom DeLay's seat in Texas 22 has fallen to the Dems as Nick Lampson defeated Shelly Sekula-Gibbs, who was forced into being a write-in candidate.
FORMER House Speaker Denny Hastert addresses his supporters as he won his reelection bid in Illinois. Not a big shocker as to him winning; I just wanted to call him FORMER House Speaker. He says he'll be addressing his lack of house speakership tomorrow. I can't wait to here that one!
Over in the Tennessee Senate race, I found this from Hotline (h/t Think Progress):
UPDATE (10:10 pm):
DEMOCRATS WIN
CONTROL OF HOUSE!!!
CNN officially projects this. Times they are a changing. Cannot wait to watch the fallout over the next couple of days. It is going to be downright ugly in righty-land and the White House.
Oversight, here we come!
UPDATE (10:05 pm): Done a little trolling over at the righty blogs and all they have to hang onto is the hope that the various exit polls that are allowing for early projections in many races are wrong. That's all they've got at this point. It's funny to watch the metaphorical steam shooting from their ears as they bitch and moan about it.
More House news - Illinois 17 goes to Democrat Phil Hare.
CNN projects Clay Shaw (R) falling to Ron Klein in Florida 22.
CNN also projects Kristen Gillibrand over John Sweeney in New York 20. Sweeney had some domestic violence issues that were hanging over his head the last few weeks.
Not sure about your math, but that should be more than enough to put us over the top. Congrats to the Dems!
UPDATE (9:55 pm): More house stuff as Dems move another couple of seats closer to the majority in the House. North Carolina 11 goes to Heath Shuler, a former NFL quarterback (and Saints QB, though he was a much better college QB at Tennessee then he ever was a pro).
Over in New York 24, Mike Arcuri defeated Raymond Meier by a solid margin.
Mark Foley's old seat has fallen to the Dems as Tim Mahoney gains the seat of Joe Negron.
And out west, Gabrielle Giffords defeated Randy Graf in Arizona 08. Graf is the dumbass who advocates allowing people to bring guns into bars.
Two seats to the majority.
The Dems have still not lost a single seat. If this holds, it's an historic event.
UPDATE (9:45 pm): House update - 2 more seats fall to Dems as Joe Sestak defeats evil pig Curt Weldon in Pennsylvania 07 and Christopher Carney knocks out adulterer and mistress strangler Don Sherwood in Pennsylvania 10. That leaves the Dems six seats to a majority.
A talking head looking at info from Virginia thinks that the Senate race will be going to a recount as some of the late reporting precincts should slant towards Webb, who's slightly behind right now.
UPDATE (9:35 pm): Bill Bennett on CNN is saying that there won't be a tidal wave for Dems. I'll monitor that and let you know if Billy is having himself a big plate of crow later tonight.
Bob Schieffer from CBS says this: “We knew this was going to be a bad night for the Republicans, but it may turn out to be their worst nightmare.” (h/t Think Progress)
South Carolina, Virginia and Tennessee have all approved bans on same sex marriage. What I wonder is what will rile up the base in '08 if the conservatives are blowing a big bullet like this in '06. You can only pass so many anti-gay bans and amendments per state, right?
Senate update:
Allen leads by about 31,000 with 93% reporting. It's gonna take something special for this to turn.
Tennessee - Corker is up 62,000 over Ford with 64% reporting.
Missouri - Talent is up 45,000 over McCaskill with 22% reporting.
Montana - Burns is up 125 votes over Tester with 1% reporting. Obviously this is early.
No updates for the House.
UPDATE (9:15 pm): Time seems to be running out for Webb though Allen's lead is "down" to 25,000 with 88% reporting.
66,000 is the margin over in Tennessee for Corker over Ford with 54% reporting.
Missouri sees Talent up by about 33,000 with 16% reporting. Still pretty early here. I see a repeat of Virginia as far as how close it goes throughout the night.
Nothing out of Montana yet, though the polls closed 15 minutes ago.
We've officially grabbed six seats in the House with 9 more to a majority. We took Kentucky 03, Connecticut 05, Ohio 18 and Indiana 02, 08 and 09. So far, no Dem seat has fallen to the GOP in either the House or the Senate, so that's definitely a good sign. (I've had to change this section four times since I started writing this update - it continues to look very good for the Dems.)
UPDATE WITHIN AN UPDATE: House number changed again as we're almost halfway to regaining the House as Paul Hodes (D) beat incumbent Charles Bass in New Hampshire 02.
UPDATE (9:00pm): Virginia is maddeningly close as Allen leads Webb by about 30,000 votes with 84% reporting. If the final tally is under 10,000 than an automatic recount kicks in. Depending on what side you hear, either northern Virginia has reported numbers or is still in the process of reporting numbers. If the latter is the case, that's good news for Webb; otherwise Allen could hang on.
As for Tennessee, Bill Ford continues to hang in there, though I would not know the geographical breakdown of the state like I do Virginia. He's about 45,000 down with 41% reporting, but it's closer than some polls might indicate. This would shock me if Ford were able to nab this.
Schadenfreude moment - Santorum just conceded, and graciously so. His kids are puffy-eyed and sad, but I just cannot stop smiling. I'm kind of a prick like that.
UPDATE (8:30pm): ANOTHER DEM PICKUP - Sheldon Whitehouse is the projected winner over moderate Republican Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island, according to CNN. This night continues to move nicely into the Dem column. After three election cycles of disappointment, this night of returns is a easily more enjoyable to watch.
Three seats down, three seats to go. With Tennessee looking to stay Republican (though Ford has made it closer lately), we need to grab Montana, Virginia and Missouri. Virginia is still very close (about 23,000 votes separate Allen from Webb with 79% reporting) Talent leads McCaskill by about 3500 votes with 5% reporting. Montana hasn't closed yet.
UPDATE (8:20pm): HUGE!! Ben Cardin defeated Mike Steele. All the GOP was hoping beyond hope that this would be a chance for the GOP to steal a seat from the Dems and end their chances of gaining a majority in the Senate. I flipped over to Fox News to hear their take and you have never seen such a collection of sourpusses and curmudgeons. These guys and JC Watts on CNN were putting much hopes on grabbing this. Can't wait to hear from Watts as he claims that this is really no big surprise.
UPDATE WITHIN AN UPDATE: Watts looks surprisingly hurt that his friend Steele lost. Begala jumped right on the fact that Steele has done everything he could to paint himself as a Dem as far as advertising went. As Begala noted, if you have to bust your tail to make yourself look like a Dem, then that doesn't speak well for the GOP this year.
UPDATE (8:10pm): So CNN has called Connecticut for Lieberman. Just goes to show what you can do when you spit in the collective face of your Democratic constiuents. Greenfield at CNN ponders that Holy Joe might be inclined to gloat a bit. I think that he should take no pride in flip-flopping his position on any number of issues and crapping on Dem primary voters.
Exit polls indicate that the GOP is responsible for putting Joe in office, as he grabbed on 26% of Dem voters with 36% of GOP voters.
As many on the left blogosphere feel, Lamont really dropped the ball by not pounding away after winning the primary in August. It was almost as if he had gone into hiding instead of pressing the advantage and that most likely had a big effect on the results tonight.
Alright, slate's clean right now. Let's see what Joe does when he gets back to the Senate. I'll be interested in seeing if he chooses to continue being the mouthpiece for the GOP and Bush that he's always been (and I really see no reason why this leopard would change his spots). Time will tell.
UPDATE (7:55pm): Bill Kristol, working the Fox News scene tonight claimed that George Allen would be running away with his race if not for YouTube and the blogs. Yeah, it's the blogs that called someone a racial slur. And it's the YouTube that tackled someone who asked you a question you didn't like. Kristol, learn a lesson and stop blaming the messenger.
One other Kristol thought - he's using an intensely lame telestrator to illustrate the needed Dem pickups in the Senate. The whole thing was disjointed and just looked completely antiquated. Over at CNN, everything looks state-of-the-art with touchscreens and big monitors and all other kinds of eye-pleasing bells and whistles. It's like CNN is working is Pixar while Fox dabbles with fingerpaint.
UPDATE (7:30pm): MSNBC is projecting Bob Casey defeating Santorum. Again, not a big shocker, but it places us another seat closer to getting back the Senate. My only question is who will be the new GOP face for the anti man-dog sex movement?
Also, CBS News is calling the New Jersey Senate race for Democrat Bob Menendez over Tom Kean Jr. The GOP has been crowing about this for months as a potential pickup yet it apparently has not come to pass. This closely mirrors what Bush did in '04 as his party felt they had a shot at NJ (or at least, that was the party line), but utlimately it comes down to the fact that NJ is a Democratic state and looks to remain so (Jeff Greenfield of CNN said that a Repub has not been elected to the Senate in NJ since 1972).
UPDATE WITHIN AN UPDATE: JC Watts is working CNN tonite and he claims that the GOP never really thought they had a shot at capturing a NJ win in the Senate. I call BS on this one. I don't have numbers as far as how much the GOP spent in the final weeks, but I'm certain that it's no small amount (even taking into account the high cost of advertising in NJ).
UPDATE OF AN UPDATE WITHIN AN UPDATE: Alright, now JC Watts is just starting to bug me. Nothing apparently surprises this man. It's been noted that Jim Webb is getting a large percentage of the evangelical vote in Virginia and this does not seem to phase JC. I'm starting to wonder just what would surprise JC this evening. Paul Begala puts it in the proper perspective when he calls this a big deal. Not to Watts, apparently.
We're still on pace for a Senate majority.
On the governor's side, it sure looks like Charlie Crist is going to defeat Jim Davis in Florida. It's still early (27% reporting) but Crist has quite a large lead.
UPDATE (7:20pm): So Santorum is already sending a letter out claiming massive fraud throughout the state and that will be the reason if Santorum happens to lose. The Santorum folks are also totally spinning until the very end as they tout their candidate is such a strong closer that everyone will see the ultimate upset in Pennsylvania. His opponent's staff calls that "laughable." I agree. Santorum is toast.
UPDATE (7:10pm): Another non-shocker coming out of Ohio, Sherrod Brown defeated Mike Dewine in the Senate race there, which means we're one seat closer to a majority. Like I said, this isn't a huge shock by any means as the GOP had stopped funding this race about a week ago, but hey, a pick-up is a pick-up.
UPDATE (7:05pm): So now the Big Three Senate races are closed. I of course refer to Virginia, Missouri and Tennessee. Early numbers are in for Virginia as they've been closed for an hour now and right now it's still pretty close, though Webb holds a slight lead with 24% reporting. Assuming other factors, if Dems win two of these three, we could be looking at control of the Senate.
UPDATE (6:30pm): In what can only be described as the non-shocker of the night, Ted Strickland has been projected as the winner of the Ohio gubernatorial race against evil bastard and election fixer Ken Blackwell. Now who will the GOP use to fix elections in Ohio without Blackwell around?
(6:05pm) Based solely on very early returns from Indiana and Kentucky, as well as some exit polls, I think this is going to be a very big night for the Dems.
I'll keep updating this thread as the night goes on.
UPDATE (1:05 am): McCaskill's on over at CNN and it sure sounds to me like a victory speech, though there's still 12% of the vote out there. Her lead has increased throughout the last hour and she's now up to almost a 40,000 vote lead. Conversely, Talent was just on and he and his crowd were much more subdued. He's got the look in his eyes that the Dems have had the last few years. Looks good on him.
Montana has reported 64% and Tester is leading by just under 10,000.
I think I'm headed to bed. It'll be nice to put my head on a pillow with dreams of a functioning government and oversight and accountability dancing in my head. I can only imagine what the right wingers are dealing with as they lay down, as most of them have. Actually, I don't have to imagine; I've dealt with what they are feeling now the last few elections. I'd feel bad for them, except I don't.
I hope to wake up with a Dem majority in the Senate to go along with the House. If it happens, who becomes Majority Leader? I don't see Reid staying on, but I could be wrong.
Ugh, must get sleep. Good night, and thanks to my readers for hanging with me.
UPDATE (12:45 am): Over on MSNBC, Jack Murtha has staked his claim to the Majority Leader position in the House. He talked really tough on Bush and Iraq. He should be effective and he claims to have almost enough support for the post. I recall some right wingers were giddy in anticipation of the "traitor" getting beat in his election. He won by 20 points.
McCaskill has opened it up a bit more over in Missouri. She's now up by over 18,500 with 84% reporting.
Montana continues to tighten somewhat as Tester still leads Burns, now by 10,700 votes with 59% reporting.
White House spokesman Tony Snow said the outcome of the elections, was "not what we would've hoped." Gosh, ya think? And here I thought Rove had the math on this election.
UPDATE (12:25 am): Schadenfreude moment - as I mentioned Malkin's efforts to buck up the troops with an outdated Talent lead, she's since updated, "Well, that was short-lived." Oh, it feels good to be a Dem tonight!
Latest House numbers have the Dems picking up 23 seats. They have not lost a single seat. Let me repeat that - THEY HAVE NOT LOST A SINGLE SEAT. That is historic.
We're up to 81% reporting in Missouri and McCaskill is up by about 13,200 on Talent.
No movement in Virginia as we're still at 99%.
Montana has tightened a bit (as polls suggested throughout the campaign). Tester still leads 52-45 with 52% reporting.
UPDATE (12:10 am): McCaskill got her lead back, and then some. 80% reporting that she now leads Talent by about 14,000 points. That's a good number this late. You can just taste the Senate....
Michelle Malkin is sad over at her site. She just reported that Talent is leading as of 15 minutes ago and then writes, "Trying to give you some good news here...." Just wait til she reports the new numbers; her readers will be suicidal.
Webb was on over at CNN and he's feeling good about where he's at, going so far as to claim that it's good to win. He's in a good position, that's for sure. But lawyers make everything nasty so I hope the Dems have wheels on the ground ready to fight to the end on this. Let's not see a repeat of Florida 2000.
UPDATE (11:55 pm): The panel on MSNBC brought up an interesting point that I hadn't thought about what with everything else going on. If the Dems gain control of the Senate, Bush will not be able to push through another conservative judge to the Supreme Court in the event of a vacancy. That's a huge deal.
Also, the numbers I had on McCaskill seem to have been some sort of glitch/error over on CNN's page. Instead, they're only showing 71% reporting and Talent is in the lead with 48,000 votes. Wish I knew where those numbers came from.
Cubin retook the lead in Wyoming 01 with 95% reporting. She holds about an 800 vote lead.
Musgrave continues to lead in Colorado over Paccione by about 6400 votes (47% reporting).
Double amputee Tammy Duckworth lost her bid for Congress in Illinois 06. Too bad.
UPDATE (11:45 pm): McCaskill has taken the lead in Missouri. She leads by about 1200 votes with 74% reporting.
Tester continues to lead Burns by 10 percentage points (31% reporting).
The count remains at 99% in the Webb/Allen race. As I noted earlier, apparently many votes still need to be counted in Fairfax County, which I heard skews heavily for Webb.
I cannot believe that we could be looking at a Democratic controlled Senate, but we're at the threshold.
UPDATE (11:40 pm): Looks like we've still got Mean Jean Schmidt to kick around in Ohio 02. Try as hard as we can to get the shrew out, it isn't happening. At least she's out of the majority.
Bob Corker is being called the "apparent winner" in Tennessee as all the votes cast today have supposedly been counted. Not one I expected the Dems to pick up, but it would have been nice. Given this, we need a sweep of the remaining Senate seats to gain a majority. Things look promising in Virginia and Montana; Missouri's got a little ways to go (McCaskill trails by 48,000 with 69% reporting, a small improvement).
George Allen is going to bed. He appeared in front of his supporters and he basically told them, "See you tomorrow." If I were in that close of a race, I wouldn't be leaving. On MSNBC, it's been reported that 33,000 uncounted votes still to come from Fairfax County, which would be a big gain for Webb given the locality.
UPDATE (11:20 pm): Tester has a solid lead (55%-43%) over Burns in Montana, but that's with only 24% reporting so it's still pretty early out there in Big Sky.
McCaskill still trails Talent with 62% reporting. She's back 52,500 votes but she's staying close. I don't have location breakdown of where the votes are coming from, but it seems (at least according to tonight) that urban areas are taking longer to report than rural areas. This may not be the case in Missouri, but if it is, that's a good sign for McCaskill.
I'm keeping an eye on some congressional races, like Colorado 04 where anti-gay incumbent Marilyn Musgrave holds a slim lead over Angie Paccione (under 2000 votes w/28% reporting) but it's been back and forth for most of the night.
Also I'm keeping tabs on Wyoming 01 (yes, WY-01; I'm just that sad) as Gary Trauner (D) currently leads Barbara Cubin (R) by about 3500 votes with 87% reporting. Some info - Trauner is handicapped and gets around in a wheelchair. After a debate Cubin threatened to slap Trauner and would have done so if he wasn't in that chair. Nice woman. Glad she's going down.
UPDATE (10:55 pm): Ben Cardin continues to open the gap on Steele, much to the chagrin of Mehlman and company. Michelle Malkin has been whining about this all night as she felt it was projected too early for Cardin. I'll let you know if she mea culpas when they final numbers are in.
Also, over in Virginia, 99% of precincts have reported and Webb has taken the lead! He's currently 2376 votes ahead. While I'm not absolutely certain, it seems that Webb gains about 3-5-6000 votes for every percentage points. This one is tough to watch. Every vote counts, people.
According to the DCCC's numbers, we're three numbers clear of a majority. Everything after that 15 was gravy but I'll take all that we can get.
UPDATE (10:35 pm): Webb continues to creep up as he is now less than 7000 votes from Allen. Out over two million votes cast, this one is amazing.
The people have spoken in South Dakota, and they have collectively crapped on the anti-choice wingers in the state. Some quick background - the state legislature passed a draconion anti-abortion law that was intended to take on Roe v. Wade in the not too distant future. The voters of the state got the measure on the ballot in order to head this off and they have resoundingly said no way. Well done.
Ken Mehlman, god bless the little weasel, continues to spin on CNN. The Dems have won the House, yet he still won't concede. He claims that there are still folks voting (really?) and they shouldn't be swayed by early pronouncements. Oh, and he's still pimping Steele, though he was projected to lose over an hour ago. Though Steele "led" for much of the early returns, Cardin has taken a 20,000 vote lead with 56% reporting.
UPDATE (10:25 pm): Jim Webb has closed the gap a ton in the closing moments of the Senate race in Virginia as he's now within 11,000 votes of Allen with 97% reporting. This thing appears headed for a recount and control of the Senate might not be known for a couple of weeks.
Tom DeLay's seat in Texas 22 has fallen to the Dems as Nick Lampson defeated Shelly Sekula-Gibbs, who was forced into being a write-in candidate.
FORMER House Speaker Denny Hastert addresses his supporters as he won his reelection bid in Illinois. Not a big shocker as to him winning; I just wanted to call him FORMER House Speaker. He says he'll be addressing his lack of house speakership tomorrow. I can't wait to here that one!
Over in the Tennessee Senate race, I found this from Hotline (h/t Think Progress):
While East TN GOP strongholds Hamilton (Chattanooga) and Knox Co have largely reported, Dem bulwarks Davidson (Nashville) and Shelby (Memphis) have still reported less than 50% of their precincts. Hamilton is Corker’s base (he was Mayor of Chattanooga) and Shelby is home to Ford, as well as the the biggest trove of black votes in the state.
UPDATE (10:10 pm):
DEMOCRATS WIN
CONTROL OF HOUSE!!!
CNN officially projects this. Times they are a changing. Cannot wait to watch the fallout over the next couple of days. It is going to be downright ugly in righty-land and the White House.
Oversight, here we come!
UPDATE (10:05 pm): Done a little trolling over at the righty blogs and all they have to hang onto is the hope that the various exit polls that are allowing for early projections in many races are wrong. That's all they've got at this point. It's funny to watch the metaphorical steam shooting from their ears as they bitch and moan about it.
More House news - Illinois 17 goes to Democrat Phil Hare.
CNN projects Clay Shaw (R) falling to Ron Klein in Florida 22.
CNN also projects Kristen Gillibrand over John Sweeney in New York 20. Sweeney had some domestic violence issues that were hanging over his head the last few weeks.
Not sure about your math, but that should be more than enough to put us over the top. Congrats to the Dems!
UPDATE (9:55 pm): More house stuff as Dems move another couple of seats closer to the majority in the House. North Carolina 11 goes to Heath Shuler, a former NFL quarterback (and Saints QB, though he was a much better college QB at Tennessee then he ever was a pro).
Over in New York 24, Mike Arcuri defeated Raymond Meier by a solid margin.
Mark Foley's old seat has fallen to the Dems as Tim Mahoney gains the seat of Joe Negron.
And out west, Gabrielle Giffords defeated Randy Graf in Arizona 08. Graf is the dumbass who advocates allowing people to bring guns into bars.
Two seats to the majority.
The Dems have still not lost a single seat. If this holds, it's an historic event.
UPDATE (9:45 pm): House update - 2 more seats fall to Dems as Joe Sestak defeats evil pig Curt Weldon in Pennsylvania 07 and Christopher Carney knocks out adulterer and mistress strangler Don Sherwood in Pennsylvania 10. That leaves the Dems six seats to a majority.
A talking head looking at info from Virginia thinks that the Senate race will be going to a recount as some of the late reporting precincts should slant towards Webb, who's slightly behind right now.
UPDATE (9:35 pm): Bill Bennett on CNN is saying that there won't be a tidal wave for Dems. I'll monitor that and let you know if Billy is having himself a big plate of crow later tonight.
Bob Schieffer from CBS says this: “We knew this was going to be a bad night for the Republicans, but it may turn out to be their worst nightmare.” (h/t Think Progress)
South Carolina, Virginia and Tennessee have all approved bans on same sex marriage. What I wonder is what will rile up the base in '08 if the conservatives are blowing a big bullet like this in '06. You can only pass so many anti-gay bans and amendments per state, right?
Senate update:
Allen leads by about 31,000 with 93% reporting. It's gonna take something special for this to turn.
Tennessee - Corker is up 62,000 over Ford with 64% reporting.
Missouri - Talent is up 45,000 over McCaskill with 22% reporting.
Montana - Burns is up 125 votes over Tester with 1% reporting. Obviously this is early.
No updates for the House.
UPDATE (9:15 pm): Time seems to be running out for Webb though Allen's lead is "down" to 25,000 with 88% reporting.
66,000 is the margin over in Tennessee for Corker over Ford with 54% reporting.
Missouri sees Talent up by about 33,000 with 16% reporting. Still pretty early here. I see a repeat of Virginia as far as how close it goes throughout the night.
Nothing out of Montana yet, though the polls closed 15 minutes ago.
We've officially grabbed six seats in the House with 9 more to a majority. We took Kentucky 03, Connecticut 05, Ohio 18 and Indiana 02, 08 and 09. So far, no Dem seat has fallen to the GOP in either the House or the Senate, so that's definitely a good sign. (I've had to change this section four times since I started writing this update - it continues to look very good for the Dems.)
UPDATE WITHIN AN UPDATE: House number changed again as we're almost halfway to regaining the House as Paul Hodes (D) beat incumbent Charles Bass in New Hampshire 02.
UPDATE (9:00pm): Virginia is maddeningly close as Allen leads Webb by about 30,000 votes with 84% reporting. If the final tally is under 10,000 than an automatic recount kicks in. Depending on what side you hear, either northern Virginia has reported numbers or is still in the process of reporting numbers. If the latter is the case, that's good news for Webb; otherwise Allen could hang on.
As for Tennessee, Bill Ford continues to hang in there, though I would not know the geographical breakdown of the state like I do Virginia. He's about 45,000 down with 41% reporting, but it's closer than some polls might indicate. This would shock me if Ford were able to nab this.
Schadenfreude moment - Santorum just conceded, and graciously so. His kids are puffy-eyed and sad, but I just cannot stop smiling. I'm kind of a prick like that.
UPDATE (8:30pm): ANOTHER DEM PICKUP - Sheldon Whitehouse is the projected winner over moderate Republican Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island, according to CNN. This night continues to move nicely into the Dem column. After three election cycles of disappointment, this night of returns is a easily more enjoyable to watch.
Three seats down, three seats to go. With Tennessee looking to stay Republican (though Ford has made it closer lately), we need to grab Montana, Virginia and Missouri. Virginia is still very close (about 23,000 votes separate Allen from Webb with 79% reporting) Talent leads McCaskill by about 3500 votes with 5% reporting. Montana hasn't closed yet.
UPDATE (8:20pm): HUGE!! Ben Cardin defeated Mike Steele. All the GOP was hoping beyond hope that this would be a chance for the GOP to steal a seat from the Dems and end their chances of gaining a majority in the Senate. I flipped over to Fox News to hear their take and you have never seen such a collection of sourpusses and curmudgeons. These guys and JC Watts on CNN were putting much hopes on grabbing this. Can't wait to hear from Watts as he claims that this is really no big surprise.
UPDATE WITHIN AN UPDATE: Watts looks surprisingly hurt that his friend Steele lost. Begala jumped right on the fact that Steele has done everything he could to paint himself as a Dem as far as advertising went. As Begala noted, if you have to bust your tail to make yourself look like a Dem, then that doesn't speak well for the GOP this year.
UPDATE (8:10pm): So CNN has called Connecticut for Lieberman. Just goes to show what you can do when you spit in the collective face of your Democratic constiuents. Greenfield at CNN ponders that Holy Joe might be inclined to gloat a bit. I think that he should take no pride in flip-flopping his position on any number of issues and crapping on Dem primary voters.
Exit polls indicate that the GOP is responsible for putting Joe in office, as he grabbed on 26% of Dem voters with 36% of GOP voters.
As many on the left blogosphere feel, Lamont really dropped the ball by not pounding away after winning the primary in August. It was almost as if he had gone into hiding instead of pressing the advantage and that most likely had a big effect on the results tonight.
Alright, slate's clean right now. Let's see what Joe does when he gets back to the Senate. I'll be interested in seeing if he chooses to continue being the mouthpiece for the GOP and Bush that he's always been (and I really see no reason why this leopard would change his spots). Time will tell.
UPDATE (7:55pm): Bill Kristol, working the Fox News scene tonight claimed that George Allen would be running away with his race if not for YouTube and the blogs. Yeah, it's the blogs that called someone a racial slur. And it's the YouTube that tackled someone who asked you a question you didn't like. Kristol, learn a lesson and stop blaming the messenger.
One other Kristol thought - he's using an intensely lame telestrator to illustrate the needed Dem pickups in the Senate. The whole thing was disjointed and just looked completely antiquated. Over at CNN, everything looks state-of-the-art with touchscreens and big monitors and all other kinds of eye-pleasing bells and whistles. It's like CNN is working is Pixar while Fox dabbles with fingerpaint.
UPDATE (7:30pm): MSNBC is projecting Bob Casey defeating Santorum. Again, not a big shocker, but it places us another seat closer to getting back the Senate. My only question is who will be the new GOP face for the anti man-dog sex movement?
Also, CBS News is calling the New Jersey Senate race for Democrat Bob Menendez over Tom Kean Jr. The GOP has been crowing about this for months as a potential pickup yet it apparently has not come to pass. This closely mirrors what Bush did in '04 as his party felt they had a shot at NJ (or at least, that was the party line), but utlimately it comes down to the fact that NJ is a Democratic state and looks to remain so (Jeff Greenfield of CNN said that a Repub has not been elected to the Senate in NJ since 1972).
UPDATE WITHIN AN UPDATE: JC Watts is working CNN tonite and he claims that the GOP never really thought they had a shot at capturing a NJ win in the Senate. I call BS on this one. I don't have numbers as far as how much the GOP spent in the final weeks, but I'm certain that it's no small amount (even taking into account the high cost of advertising in NJ).
UPDATE OF AN UPDATE WITHIN AN UPDATE: Alright, now JC Watts is just starting to bug me. Nothing apparently surprises this man. It's been noted that Jim Webb is getting a large percentage of the evangelical vote in Virginia and this does not seem to phase JC. I'm starting to wonder just what would surprise JC this evening. Paul Begala puts it in the proper perspective when he calls this a big deal. Not to Watts, apparently.
We're still on pace for a Senate majority.
On the governor's side, it sure looks like Charlie Crist is going to defeat Jim Davis in Florida. It's still early (27% reporting) but Crist has quite a large lead.
UPDATE (7:20pm): So Santorum is already sending a letter out claiming massive fraud throughout the state and that will be the reason if Santorum happens to lose. The Santorum folks are also totally spinning until the very end as they tout their candidate is such a strong closer that everyone will see the ultimate upset in Pennsylvania. His opponent's staff calls that "laughable." I agree. Santorum is toast.
UPDATE (7:10pm): Another non-shocker coming out of Ohio, Sherrod Brown defeated Mike Dewine in the Senate race there, which means we're one seat closer to a majority. Like I said, this isn't a huge shock by any means as the GOP had stopped funding this race about a week ago, but hey, a pick-up is a pick-up.
UPDATE (7:05pm): So now the Big Three Senate races are closed. I of course refer to Virginia, Missouri and Tennessee. Early numbers are in for Virginia as they've been closed for an hour now and right now it's still pretty close, though Webb holds a slight lead with 24% reporting. Assuming other factors, if Dems win two of these three, we could be looking at control of the Senate.
UPDATE (6:30pm): In what can only be described as the non-shocker of the night, Ted Strickland has been projected as the winner of the Ohio gubernatorial race against evil bastard and election fixer Ken Blackwell. Now who will the GOP use to fix elections in Ohio without Blackwell around?
(6:05pm) Based solely on very early returns from Indiana and Kentucky, as well as some exit polls, I think this is going to be a very big night for the Dems.
I'll keep updating this thread as the night goes on.
WHAT THE HELL DOES THAT MEAN?!
TOM DELAY
According to Cliff Schecter, who's guest-blogging at Crooks and Liars, Tom DeLay is over on Fox News calling a Democratic majority in the House a "lame duck majority." So he's already come up with a name for something that hasn't even happened yet. Of course, I didn't see the exchange so perhaps I'm missing the context (c'mon, I've got enough of a pit in my stomach without watch Fox News spin all night; I'll grudgingly view CNN tonight).
So either DeLay knows something the rest of us don't or he's panicking; as well he should, but probably more because he'll be headed to prison sometime in his future.
Or maybe he's referring to his own GOP's prospects after tonight? Maybe I'll flip over to see if we can hear anymore DeLay-isms.
GETTING UGLY ON THE RIGHT
REDSTATE.COM
I'll be checking on some of the rightie bloggers throughout the evening to get a balanced look at things. Redstate has already called their first race (tongue planted firmly in cheek, I should add) as they called Florida for Ben Nelson:
How about that dig at NRSC chairman Elizabeth Dole? I hope she's wearing some of that body armor that isn't getting to our troops because she's gonna be taking quite a few shot tonight and tomorrow.
REDSTATE.COM
I'll be checking on some of the rightie bloggers throughout the evening to get a balanced look at things. Redstate has already called their first race (tongue planted firmly in cheek, I should add) as they called Florida for Ben Nelson:
Breaking with a long tradition of waiting for actual results, indications, or hints of either - RedState can conclusively say that Katherine Harris has lost her bid for election to the United States Senate. Congratulations to Democrat Bill Nelson for "earning" another term serving the people of Florida. And by "earning" we mean something that looks a lot like a a middling professional boxer beating the snot out of a seven year old with a limp.
Congratulations, Mrs. Dole.
How about that dig at NRSC chairman Elizabeth Dole? I hope she's wearing some of that body armor that isn't getting to our troops because she's gonna be taking quite a few shot tonight and tomorrow.
EARLY RESULTS?
(Compiled by Americablog)
Political Wire has some early returns in various Senate races. As Goddard notes, take this as you will:
Rhode Island - Dems lead by 7
Virginia - Dems lead by 7
Pennsylvania - Dems lead by 15
Ohio - Dems lead by 14
New Jersey - Dems lead by 8
Montana - Dems lead by 9
Missouri - Dems lead by 2
Tennessee - GOP leads by 3
Arizone - GOP leads by 4
Huffington Post has similar results, with only Virginia and Montana showing slight differences.
Rhode Island - Dems lead by 7
Virginia - Dems lead by 5
Pennsylvania - Dems lead by 15
Ohio - Dems lead by 14
New Jersey - Dems lead by 7
Montana - Dems lead by 7
Missouri - Dems lead by 2
Tennessee - GOP leads by 3
Arizone - GOP leads by 4
So far, that's a pretty good situation, but it's still very early and there's a lot of votes for the Repubs to steal so stay tuned.
Another thing I'm keeping an eye on is Tradesports.
The head of my political science department turned me onto it and Glenn Greenwald has been all over it today. Glenn describes Tradesports best:
A very active and (seemingly) informed market for political junkies to trade in predictive shares for each individual Congressional race and overall control of Congress. In the same way The New York Stock Exchange functions, the trading transactions at various prices between willing buyer and seller produce (at least in theory) an accurate probability for the outcome of each race.
Below are the percentages assigned for each listed outcome. The Democrats need a net gain of six seats to gain control of the Senate, and if this trading market is right, they would pick up exactly six seats (the Democratic "turn" seats are bolded below). On the race-by-race list, the market is betting that no Democratic incumbent loses (none is even close to endangered):
I'll use Glenn's updated list as the site has been choppy today given higher traffic:
Arizona - turning Democratic - 7.9%
Connecticut - remaining Democratic (Lamont) - 4.0%
Connecticut - remaining "Democratic" (Lieberman)- 94.7%
Maryland - remaining Democratic - 65.3%
Michigan - remaining Democratic - 94.9%
Minnesota - remaining Democratic - 92.9%
Missouri - turning Democratic - 60.0%
Montana - turning Democratic - 69.0%
New Jersey - remaining Democratic - 94.2%
Ohio - turning Democratic - 96.2%
Pennsylvania - turning Democratic - 94.2%
Rhode Island - turning Democratic - 68.0%
Tennessee - turning Democratic - 22.0%
Virginia - turning Democratic - 66.0%
Washington - remaining Democratic - 92.2%
I highlight the ones based on Political Wire's and Huffpost's returns and they seem to jibe with the early numbers.
(Compiled by Americablog)
Political Wire has some early returns in various Senate races. As Goddard notes, take this as you will:
Rhode Island - Dems lead by 7
Virginia - Dems lead by 7
Pennsylvania - Dems lead by 15
Ohio - Dems lead by 14
New Jersey - Dems lead by 8
Montana - Dems lead by 9
Missouri - Dems lead by 2
Tennessee - GOP leads by 3
Arizone - GOP leads by 4
Huffington Post has similar results, with only Virginia and Montana showing slight differences.
Rhode Island - Dems lead by 7
Virginia - Dems lead by 5
Pennsylvania - Dems lead by 15
Ohio - Dems lead by 14
New Jersey - Dems lead by 7
Montana - Dems lead by 7
Missouri - Dems lead by 2
Tennessee - GOP leads by 3
Arizone - GOP leads by 4
So far, that's a pretty good situation, but it's still very early and there's a lot of votes for the Repubs to steal so stay tuned.
Another thing I'm keeping an eye on is Tradesports.
The head of my political science department turned me onto it and Glenn Greenwald has been all over it today. Glenn describes Tradesports best:
A very active and (seemingly) informed market for political junkies to trade in predictive shares for each individual Congressional race and overall control of Congress. In the same way The New York Stock Exchange functions, the trading transactions at various prices between willing buyer and seller produce (at least in theory) an accurate probability for the outcome of each race.
Below are the percentages assigned for each listed outcome. The Democrats need a net gain of six seats to gain control of the Senate, and if this trading market is right, they would pick up exactly six seats (the Democratic "turn" seats are bolded below). On the race-by-race list, the market is betting that no Democratic incumbent loses (none is even close to endangered):
I'll use Glenn's updated list as the site has been choppy today given higher traffic:
Arizona - turning Democratic - 7.9%
Connecticut - remaining Democratic (Lamont) - 4.0%
Connecticut - remaining "Democratic" (Lieberman)- 94.7%
Maryland - remaining Democratic - 65.3%
Michigan - remaining Democratic - 94.9%
Minnesota - remaining Democratic - 92.9%
Missouri - turning Democratic - 60.0%
Montana - turning Democratic - 69.0%
New Jersey - remaining Democratic - 94.2%
Ohio - turning Democratic - 96.2%
Pennsylvania - turning Democratic - 94.2%
Rhode Island - turning Democratic - 68.0%
Tennessee - turning Democratic - 22.0%
Virginia - turning Democratic - 66.0%
Washington - remaining Democratic - 92.2%
I highlight the ones based on Political Wire's and Huffpost's returns and they seem to jibe with the early numbers.
EARLY EXIT POLLING
Watching some early exit polls (no candidate results, just voter views) on CNN ...
Surprising to see that this is indeed a national election and in this election, politics is definitely not necessarily local this time around (about 2/3 said national issues are more important than local issues). Another one that was something of a shocker is that many voters said that corruption (42%) in Washington is very important, leading terrorism (40%), the economy (39%) and then Iraq (37%). (This was not a pie-chart type of question as the numbers would obviously add up to more than 100%; it was about which issues are most important.)
Early on, Democrats had hoped to push a "culture of corruption" storyline for this election and on some levels they demonstrated some success, though I think if you asked many bloggers, it was a nice sideshow, but probably not the main event/juicy issue that could win the election for them. This polling seems to indicate that the corruption issue did resonate with the voters and that can only be a good thing for the Democrats.
Watching some early exit polls (no candidate results, just voter views) on CNN ...
Surprising to see that this is indeed a national election and in this election, politics is definitely not necessarily local this time around (about 2/3 said national issues are more important than local issues). Another one that was something of a shocker is that many voters said that corruption (42%) in Washington is very important, leading terrorism (40%), the economy (39%) and then Iraq (37%). (This was not a pie-chart type of question as the numbers would obviously add up to more than 100%; it was about which issues are most important.)
Early on, Democrats had hoped to push a "culture of corruption" storyline for this election and on some levels they demonstrated some success, though I think if you asked many bloggers, it was a nice sideshow, but probably not the main event/juicy issue that could win the election for them. This polling seems to indicate that the corruption issue did resonate with the voters and that can only be a good thing for the Democrats.
Thursday, October 26, 2006
YOUR MATH
KARL ROVE
Karl Rove got a little testy when being interviewed by Robert Siegel of National Public Radio yesterday. Faced with the possibility of losing both houses of Congress in under two weeks, the normally self-assured Rove resorted to flights and fancy and snippy retorts.
Via Raw Story:
I swear, the holier-than-thou attitude emanating from this man must be downright nausea-inducing when one is up close next to him. Based on this exchange, either Rove has permanently set his spin-meter on "super-duper-hardcore spin" or he is in for a terribly rude awakening coming Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning. I would pay money to see the look on his face when the results begin to roll in and the nightmares of a lame duck presidency begin to creep in.
KARL ROVE
Karl Rove got a little testy when being interviewed by Robert Siegel of National Public Radio yesterday. Faced with the possibility of losing both houses of Congress in under two weeks, the normally self-assured Rove resorted to flights and fancy and snippy retorts.
Via Raw Story:
After midterm election interviewer Robert Siegel stated that "many might consider you on the optimistic end of realism" regarding Republican hopes to retain both Houses in November, Rove suggested that the NPR host was biased.
"Not that you would be exhibiting a bias or anything like that," Rove said. "You're just making a comment."
"I'm looking at all the same polls that you're looking at every day," Seigel responded.
"No you're not!" Rove exclaimed.
Rove said that he was reviewing 68 polls a week, and that "unlike the general public, I'm allowed to see the polls on the individual races," as opposed to public polls reported in the media.
"You may be looking at four or five public polls a week that talk about attitudes nationally, but that do not impact the outcome," Rove said.
Rove claimed that the polls "add up to a Republican Senate and a Republican House."
"You may end up with a different math, but you're entitled to your math," Rove said. I'm entitled to 'the' math."
I swear, the holier-than-thou attitude emanating from this man must be downright nausea-inducing when one is up close next to him. Based on this exchange, either Rove has permanently set his spin-meter on "super-duper-hardcore spin" or he is in for a terribly rude awakening coming Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning. I would pay money to see the look on his face when the results begin to roll in and the nightmares of a lame duck presidency begin to creep in.
Wednesday, October 25, 2006
EXPECTING THE WORST
I have often believed that, given a fair election, Democrats would win more times then they would lose. But given the various convoluted election laws found throughout the country, there is always a fear in the back of my mind that something (or many things) will occur this coming Election Day that will once again undermine our democratic process.
Today, the Washington Post took a look at ten states that could very well be the Florida/Ohio of 2006.
I believe that one of the first acts of this new Congress, assuming Democratic control, should be the development of a nationwide voting system that would do away with local issues. Control over elections should also be taken out of the hands of partisan secretaries of state like Katherine Harris in 2000 and Ken Blackwell in 2004. Further, some form of papertrail must be readily available in the likely event of voting machine tampering. These three suggestions alone would go a long way to restoring faith in our broken voting system.
I have often believed that, given a fair election, Democrats would win more times then they would lose. But given the various convoluted election laws found throughout the country, there is always a fear in the back of my mind that something (or many things) will occur this coming Election Day that will once again undermine our democratic process.
Today, the Washington Post took a look at ten states that could very well be the Florida/Ohio of 2006.
In a state-by-state canvass, the 75-page report singles out places, such as Indiana and Arizona, where courts have upheld stringent new laws requiring voters to show poll workers specific forms of identification. It cites states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania, which have switched to electronic voting machines whose accuracy has been challenged. And it points to states such as Colorado and Washington, which have departed from the tradition of polling sites in neighborhood precincts.
I believe that one of the first acts of this new Congress, assuming Democratic control, should be the development of a nationwide voting system that would do away with local issues. Control over elections should also be taken out of the hands of partisan secretaries of state like Katherine Harris in 2000 and Ken Blackwell in 2004. Further, some form of papertrail must be readily available in the likely event of voting machine tampering. These three suggestions alone would go a long way to restoring faith in our broken voting system.
Friday, September 29, 2006
WHAT NEXT?!GEORGE FELIX ALLEN JR.
Let's see, he called his opponent's campaign aid "macaca" then give six different explanations and non-apologies over the incident. Then we find out that he's been awful cozy in the past with a certain affiliate of the Ku Klux Klan. He is later asked if he knew that his maternal grandfather is Jewish and he flips out about it. Just recently he has declared in no uncertain terms that he has never used the "n-word" though more and more people are coming forward to dispute that claim. To me, that's about enough scandal for three election cycles, but Felix apparently likes the challenge of fending off controversy after controversy. But I guess he was getting tired of the garden variety racist/antisemitic stuff because he has really upped the ante over the last day or so. Ready for this one? He spits (or expectorates - gotta work on my GRE vocabulary) at people. Female people, in fact.
There are currently four different stories currently floating around that chronicle Felix's disgusting habit of indulging in chewing tobacco and then expelling the brown spittle with excellent accuracy at the feet of women. Swing State Project has the whole story, including the four instances. Some quick excerpts:
I urge you to go read the whole thing over at Swing State. It's great, if somewhat stomach-turning, stuff. It's just amazing the amount of controversy that surrounds this guy. And this is a guy who, until a few months ago, was an early front-runner for the GOP nod for prez in '08. God help us.Then, the Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia gathered up a glob of tobacco-laced saliva. He used his lips to squirt it out, as if he had practiced. The spit landed just at the tip of my shoe. He grinned, but didn't say a word.
...
While they were talking, [Felix] was chewing tobacco. He spit on the
ground and a fleck of brown spittle landed on my sister-in-law’s shoe.
...
... Allen turns away and spits a long brown streak of saliva into the dirt, just missing one of his constituents, a carefully put-together, blonde, ponytailed woman approaching the senator for an autograph. She stops in her tracks and stares with disgust at the bubbly tobacco juice that almost landed on her feet.
...
[Felix] made a few remarks to the crowd and then stood with his back to us, turning once to aim a jet of tobacco spit directly at our feet.
I can only imagine what he might do for an encore. I'm thinking that perhaps in his spare time he like to run over children with cerebral palsy or maybe he enjoys killing bunnies and kittens with various garden implements. I welcome any suggestions from my loyal readers over what will be the next "...-gate" to strike Felix's campaign.
KNEEL BEFORE JOEMENTUMMARSHALL BULLMOOSE WHITMAN
The Bullshit Moose is at it again. And this time, it's pretty sickening. Based on a recent poll that shows Joe Lieberman up by 10 on Ned Lamont, the Moose has decided that it's time to genuflect before the beauty that is Joementum and kiss his ring. He had this to say:
Some Democrats who have shunned Joe or endorsed his opponent should have some second thoughts. Joe will return to the Senate next year as likely the most powerful Senator. Those donkeys who desire to be President of the United States should consider this - Joe better represents the electorate than over-hyped McGovernites with modems.Can someone please go knock on this assclown's door and ask him why Joementum won't even mention Iraq anymore? Why it's next to impossible to actually have a position on the issue? Why he is against releasing the full NIE? Why Joe claimed to be for working towards ending the war before being against working to end the war? Why Joe claims that it doesn't matter what the National Intelligence Estimate says since will not change his wrongheaded position on Iraq?
And why is the moose harping on one poll. The one he refers to is from Quinnipiac and it does in fact show Lieberman leading 49-39. I wanted to check back and see if Quinnipiac might have been an outlier in the past and sure enough, there's have some of the largest margins seen in any recent polls. Going back to August 18, Quinnipiac had Lieberman up 53-41; go back to before the primary on July 18th (three weeks before the primary) and the lead was 51-27. Three weeks before a primary that Lamont won and Quinnipiac had Joe up by 24%?! And we're supposed to take this seriously.
Besides, how come the Moose isn't crowing about Joe's enormous leads in some other recent polls, like a Zogby Interactive that has Joe leading 46-44, or an ARG poll showing Joe with a 47-45 lead, or a Rasmussen poll that has Joe leading 45-43? All three of these polls were taken within the last few weeks and all show Joe with a statistically insignificant "lead" yet Moosey uses the outlier as proof that Joementum is back and it's better than ever!
You know, I just don't get the Moose. I used to dig reading him sometimes. His was a witty and fun little read each day. But now he's just so far gone with his support of Lieberman that it's a shame where he's at now. Maybe he should pull his moose head out of his moose ass and realize that Joementum shouldn't be the guy to blow all your credibility on.
Thursday, September 28, 2006
ARE YOU STUPID OR SOMETHING?JOHN BOEHNER
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the Majority Leader for the United States House of Representatives, John Boehner. On a recent episode of Hardball, Boehner was asked questions about Iraq by an unusually fiesty Chris Matthews. In the interview, Boehner insisted that Saddam Hussein provided what he kept calling "indirect" support for the 9/11 terrorists (though he would never define what the hell "indirect" actually meant after being asked several times by Matthews). He also claimed that Saddam really really really did have weapons of mass destruction, we just "haven't found them yet."
It's just amazing that even after all this time and all the evidence and testimony and other sources of information that have come out over the last three years that Boehner would have the never to appear on national television and insult the American public by pushing the garbage. Underneath a growing mountain of evidence the contrary, assholes like Boehner are still screaming at the top of their lungs to pay no attention to what your eyes tell you. It's disgraceful.
Matthews also questioned why there haven't been any oversight hearings and Boehner incredulously claimed that we conduct oversight every day. What?! I'm no regular viewer of C-SPAN, but I think that I'd remember if some form of oversight hearing had been held. Of course, none have been held. Senate Minority Leader said this on the matter:
"During the Civil War, President Lincoln was faced continually with oversight hearings by his Congress. Of course, we know during World War II, there were a number of commissions. The most famous was that conducted by Senator Harry Truman of Missouri, which led to his becoming Vice President. Some say, but for that he would not have been chosen as Vice President."It's this type of stuff that highlights how important it will be for the Democrats to take control of at least one chamber of Congress this November. Men like Boehner have proven that they have no business leading this country. He and his ilk are nothing but hacks and America deserves better.
What was the Truman Commission? It was to determine what was going on with World War II. Was money being wasted? Were troop levels right? Korean war hearings were also held, and the same for the Vietnam war. But for this war, none--even though this war has taken longer than it took to settle the differences in the European theater in World War II. Soon it will be the same amount of time that we were able to beat Japan."
Oh, Crooks and Liars has the video. It's amazing to see, I highly recommend it.
MUST BE ELECTION SEASONMARILYN MUSGRAVE
It's as regular as clockwork this time of the year; in an effort to get their voters to the polls, conservatives bring out the tried and true "God, Guns and Gays" strategy. Well, guns don't get much traction these days, so the Repugs have been going full throttle on the God and Gays part. And this time it was Colorado Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave's turn to carry the torch. Appearing at the Family Research Council's Value Voters Summit (which is basically a gathering of hate-filled anti-gay speakers), Musgrave declared that gay marriage "is the most important issue that we face today." Since Nico over at Think Progress said it best, I'll quote him here:
Nine of the 11 annual laws that fund government agencies have not yet been passed by the current Congress. A long list of critical national security legislation remains unresolved. And yet, thanks to hard-right members of Congress like Musgrave, Congress wasted time this session debating fringe issues like gay marriage, flag burning, and repealing the estate tax.The statement is just so wrong on its face given the plethora of problems we face as a nation today, shouldn't gay marriage be somewhere in the 40s or so even if you are a freaking psycho winger nut? I sort of wonder if it's not insulting to your audience when you say crap like this anyway. Granted, there are probably wingnuts in attendance that truly believe that given a choice between the U.S. being completely destroyed by terrorist bombings or having gay marriage throughout the nation, they'd probably pick the latter, but to the more sane wingers who simply feel that marriage should be between a man and a woman only, don't you think they hear stuff like this and feel a little insulted? Eh, probably not.
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
I GOT YOUR "N-WORD" RIGHT HERE!GEORGE FELIX "NINCOMPOOP" ALLEN JR.
Continuing to inspire some enterprising writer to pen the tale of "How I Went from '08 Presidential Contender to Losing my Senate Seat All in the Span of Two Months", George Felix Allen Jr. now has a new kick. I guess he thought that the "macaca" controversy had run its course, so he decided to rustle up a new one. Recently, a Salon article revealed that Felix has used the "N-word" in his past. Now before I'm drowned out with hundreds of "So?" in the comments section, Felix decided to do the extra dumb thing and claim that he has never ever never ever never used that word in the entire history of his world.
Two huge problems for Felix here; first, he's dealing in an absolute. Never? Never ever? C'mon, we all know his history, his fascination with the Confederacy and nooses, his relationship with the KKK or the CCC or whatever it's called. Given this, does he actually expect anyone to buy that he never used the "n-word"? Seriously?
Second problem I see is that he immediately painted himself into a corner. More and more people are coming out daily claiming that he has used the word, but since he already issued his "never ever" denial, there's no way for him to back out of it without looking like a big stupid racist liar. One would think that he had learned from the whole "macaca" thing that when you say something stupid, you quickly apologize for it and move on. It negates the point of attack and allows you to move on. Try this out, Felix: "Yes, I have used that word in the past. I'm ashamed that I have used it and I can assure you that I no longer use it. It's a dispicable word and it has no place in civilized society. Now, what I want to talk about is x and y...". Subject closed, move on. Instead, Felix issued his unrealistic denial and will now spend the next two-plus weeks denying it while more former associates come out of the woodwork to undermine his denial. Now this is a no-win for him. There is no one that is going to come out in support of Felix and with any kind of authority say that he or she is 100% certain that Felix has never said the "n-word". If he had issued a quick apology like the one above, then any further revelations would pretty much be moot. I'm no political consultant, but this campaign is operating like a middle school class treasurer campaign. Mistake after mistake has been made, and every indication is that it will cost Felix his current job, and further down the road, a chance at the presidency.
Monday, September 25, 2006
AND THE HITS JUST KEEP ON COMING!
JEAN SCHMIDT
I swear to you, this woman is a gift; a gift that keeps on giving. I've blogged about Jean Schmidt about a month ago. There I chronicled a story of how she may or may not have fudged on a story about her ability to run a marathon in certain amount of time. At the time, I griped about how there simply must be more important things to worry about than this pitiful story.
Well, the newest story, probably qualifies as "more important" and it's also a heckuva lot more damning. It seems Ms. Schmidt is a plagarist. The DCCC has all the gory details.
Jean Schmidt added another blatant deception to her long list of publicly-exposed lies this week when she published an op-ed about Medicare Part D in the Community Press and Recorder that is almost identical to a press release issued by Congresswoman Deborah Pryce (R-Columbus) on July 10 of this year.What I find extra funny about this is that Schmidt cribbed off of a fellow Buckeye. She couldn't go swipe something from some Republican in Wyoming or Alabama, where the chances of reading identical op-eds shrinks drastically compared to the possibility of someone in her state reading op-eds in some Columbus and Cincinnati papers. It's like a boy turning in a paper that his brother wrote a year ago for the same teacher teaching the same class. So not only is she a liar and a cheat, but she's also an idiot. But then was that ever really in doubt?
Saturday, September 23, 2006
LUUUUCY, I'M LOSING!RICKY SANTORUM
Dollars to donuts, Ricky is the guy who invariably makes me laugh. More so than even Lieberman and Felix. I don't know, they guy is just a big goofball who has to know by now that he has no chance at holding onto his seat in the Senate. Over the last few weeks, the GOP has done everything in their power to shift the narrative and puts Dems on the defensive, mostly through Bush's "Fears and Lies U.S. Tour" that just recently wrapped up in front of a sellout crowd at the UN. Add to this media blitz the fact that Santorum has been running negative ads against his opponent Bob Casey and one would assume Ricky would receive some sort of boost in the race. And if you're one of those that would assume such a thing, then you would be wrong. Shorter me: Ricky, meet the tank. This is where you be living. After all the Bush blitz and all the ads, Ricky still cannot get closer than nine percent to Casey, and most polls do not even have him cracking 40% support. Far be it from me to frolic in the misery that is the Santorum campaign but it couldn't happen to a bigger ass.
Want one more laugh? This one's a doozy - you'll love it! The big ad that Ricky threw out there featured actors supposedly portraying four big donors to Casey's campaign meeting in a shadowy smoke-filled room. Oooh, spooky stuff, right? Well, Santorum's campaign later conceded that the four donors that the actors were portraying had never actually given money to Casey and two of them had in fact contributed to Ricky's campaign! Dude, that's freaking awesome!!! What can Ricky do next, show pictures of cute little bunnies and then have in a big bold font how a vote for Casey will result in these bunnies' deaths?! Ah, it is to laugh. Thank you, Ricky. When you go down, you go down hard, buddie.
Thursday, September 21, 2006
WHERE'S MY CHECK?GEORGE FELIX ALLEN JR.
The Allen Senate campaign continues its slow burn to November defeat with this little tidbit from campaign manager Dick Wadhams (if ever there was a radio disc jockey name, that would be it) - he's whining about how "paid bloggers" (financed by his opponent, Jim Webb) won't let go of the fact that Felix's reaction when asked about his family's Jewish heritage was so out of left field. The short version: during a debate, a moderator asked his mother's father was Jewish. Felix flew off the handle and complained that the moderator was "making aspersions about people because of their religious beliefs."
Of course, the modus operandi of this campaign is that whenever there's a misstep, there will be a denial, a strong denial, a qualified apology, a rant about how the media is attacking them for no reason and finally another strong denial. I think that's basically how it went for the infamous Macaca controversy.
Well, it seems for this controversy they're right on schedule. In a way, I agree with Wadhams - it is sort of a nonissue. In the grand scheme of things, it matters little that Felix's grandfather was Jewish (except maybe to his KKK friends, but that's another story). It's just that their successive rants and denials make it impossible not for us bloggers to keep bringing it up, if for no other reason than their screeching over whatever controversy they're embroiled in during a given week just gets more and more preposterous.
Basically, this campaign may actually have the worst damage control operation this side of Joe Lieberman keystone campaigners. And that's really saying something. Bloggers live for this kind of stuff. The fact that this campaign has a proven track record of failing to effectively deal with even the simplest dustups is like catnip to us. So much so that many of us do it for free (though if someone with the Webb camp wants to cut me a check, just let me know).
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
HORRENDOUS BASTARDREP. GEOFF DAVIS (R-KY)
Republicans love nothing better than to talk tough about supporting the troops. It's their bread and butter play; a key component in the kanard that the GOP is more suited to national security issues then Dems. But for what this Davis bastard is doing, he should be taken out back and publicly shamed.
As you may or may not be aware, being a soldier is not necessarily the highest paying job to be had in America. Sometimes money can be tight in a military household and sometimes it becomes inevitable that a little help may be needed. Enter the predators. Payday loan operations provide quick cash until a paycheck comes in, but the money is provided at a cost of sometimes 400% interest on the loan. More from Think Progress:
A Pentagon report last month found that as many one in five U.S. service members “are being preyed on by loan centers set up near military bases” that can charge interest of 400 percent or more. Increasingly, soldiers have debt levels so high they are barred from serving overseas; others suffer from “bankruptcies, divorces and ruined careers.” (More facts HERE.)Bad stuff, right? Well, something is trying to be done to remedy this in Congress. An amendment with bipartisan support from Republican Jim Talent and Democrat Bill Nelson would place a maximum cap of 36% on these types of loans to members of the military.
Enter Geoff Davis. Seems he's got friends in high places who don't like this bill and are looking for him to neuter it for them. Continued from TP:
Davis has proposed his own language — praised by the payday lending industry — that sets no real limits on predatory lenders. One of Davis’s aides admitted last week that he consulted on the legislation with “CNG Financial of Mason, Ohio, one of his top campaign donors and owner of national payday lender Check ‘n Go.”I gotta wonder how a piece of human waste like this guy actually sleeps at night. He's complicit in ploy to outright steal money from members of our armed forces. The Dems get called traitors because they want a plan for bringing our troops home but this sorry excuse conspires to weaken our military by attacking them in their homes and he's supporting the troops like all good Republicans do. Disgraceful.
IT'S THE ADVERTISING, STUPID!JOE LIEBERMAN
I know, I know, it's bad form to beat up on Lieberman two posts in a row. I just wanted to make a quick note on something - campaign ads.
I've enjoyed the hell out of Ned Lamont's two recent ads, Yanks/Sox and Turncoat. I think that they're both fresh, smart, cool, non-wonky (no citing obscure legislation in tiny print) and just plain fun. If you haven't seen them, I highly recommend doing so. Both the links above go to YouTube, so go check them out.
Then, we come to Joe Lieberman's latest ad, Blackboard. Shorter me: LAME! Wow, just so lame. It basically had the same tired feel that I get from most campaign ads. This thing was the exact opposite of Lamont's. I guess that you should go and see just to see what I'm talking about but it's just a dumb premise. Voiceover starts with just a chalkboard with "Democrats" written on one side and "Republicans" on the other and then there's a line in between them. Then Joe enters the scene and proceeds to erase the line and blather on about what a great guy he is because he's always reaches across party lines. The tag at the end is "... I approve this message because it's about people, not politics." How he actually said that with a staight face is beyond me. And if Joe was being completely honest in the commercial, he probably should have also erased the word "Democrat" as well and put a big circle and a smiley face and hearts and flowers around "Republican". But then, that would probably not fit into the 30-second spot.
One other note - won't be much blogging today from me as my agenda is packed. Aside from regular work stuff and an inordinate amount of driving, I'm also meeting with an official at a local university about enrolling in graduate school. I've been out of school for almost ten years so it's all quite daunting at this point, but hopefully by the end of the day I'll have a better idea of where I stand. I'll blog all about it later. Thanks for coming by.
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