Wednesday, November 15, 2006


As longtime readers no doubt are aware, I've been following early trends for the '08 presidential contest (because it's never too early). Gallup has provided their first post-election look as well, both for the Democrats and Republicans. (Full information, including methodology minutiae can be found here.) The results:


Nov 9-12, 2006
Hillary Rodham Clinton 31
Barack Obama 19
John Edwards 10
Al Gore 9
John Kerry 7
Joe Biden 4
Wesley Clark 3
Bill Richardson 2
Evan Bayh 2
Russ Feingold 1
Tom Daschle 1
Christopher Dodd 1
Tom Vilsack 1

Other 2
None 1
All/any *
No opinion 6
* Less than 0.5%


Nov 9-12, 2006
Rudy Giuliani 28
John McCain 26
Condoleezza Rice 13
Newt Gingrich 7
Mitt Romney 5
Bill Frist 4
George Allen 2
George Pataki 1
Mike Huckabee 1
Chuck Hagel 1
Sam Brownback 1
Duncan Hunter *

Other 2
None 3
All/any --
No opinion 7
* Less than 0.5%

For the Dems, the results bare out about how I would have seen them, with Clinton the frontrunner and Obama within striking distance. With Edwards showing up in third, I wonder how much he might suffer from the "loser stench" from '04 election given how we Dems seem to shun our losers, rightly or wrongly. Gore's 9% will go to someone else after he makes his 100th speech denying any interest in running in '08. Same goes for Kerry, who's ship has sailed in my opinion. Depending on how the Iraq war develops over the coming year, Clark could see his support grow. Conversely, if illegal immigration continues to be a big factor, I could see Richardson gaining ground.

The GOP poll I found somewhat surprising, as Giuliani continues to poll very well, despite his non-conservative social views. McCain is very close so these two could be slugging it out over who can appeal more to the base throughout 2007. Rice appearing third was very surprising as she's given no indication towards presidential aspirations. And given the fact that she actually treated a gay couple at a recent event like they were, you know, human did her know favors among the far right anti-gay folks. Romney having only five percent was also surprising as I see him as a strong candidate who will quite likely be the third part of a three-way bout for the nomination. As always, Huckabee remains my darkhorse - and right now the polls bear that out.

No comments: